New Zealand general election, 2008
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This article or section contains information about an upcoming or ongoing election. Content may change dramatically as the election approaches and unfolds. |
| 2008 general election major party leaders | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | National | ||
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| Helen Clark Prime Minister |
Don Brash Leader of the Opposition |
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| Parliament | 27 years | Parliament | 6 years |
| Leader since | 1993 | Leader since | 2003 |
| Electorate | Mount Albert | Electorate | List |
The next New Zealand general election is expected to take place in late 2008, and must be held no later than 15 November 2008. However, the election may take place any time before that if the House of Representatives is dissolved before then.
The opposition National, currently led by Don Brash, is expected to be the main challenger to the incumbent Labour-led minority government, currently led by the Prime Minister Helen Clark.
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[edit] Election date
Under section 19 of the Constitution Act 1986, "Parliament shall meet not later than 6 weeks after the day fixed for the return of the writs for that election." The writ for an election will have to be issued before the dissolution of the current Parliament. Under section 17 of the Constitution Act, the term of Parliament is "3 years from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." Since the writs for the 2005 election were returned on 7 October 2005[1], the current Parliament will expire on 7 October 2008, and the final date for the general election will be Saturday 15 November, 2008.
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[edit] The 48th Parliament
Following the 2005 general election Labour leader Prime Minister Helen Clark announced a new coalition agreement that saw the return of her minority government coalition with the Progressives, with confidence-and-supply support from New Zealand First and from United Future. This arrangement did not give the Labour-led government a majority however, due to the Māori Party creating an overhang by holding four electorate seats but not gaining a proportionate amount of the party vote. Thus, the Green Party agreed to abstain on matters of confidence and supply, giving the government a majority.
Traditionally in New Zealand it is rare for a incumbent governing party to win a fourth term. Both Labour and National have only done so only once, in 1946 and 1968 respectively. However, under the MMP environment this may change, as the formation of government becomes more dependent on the performance of potential coalition parties rather than the two major parties.
National, ACT and the Māori Party are all in opposition, although only the National Party formally constitute the formal Opposition. However, the Maori Party does co-operate and vote with the government on some issues.
On current polling it is likely the Māori Party may receive a great enough share of the party votes to reach proportionality, meaning the total number of seats in Parliament will be reduced to 120. In order for either of the two major parties to win the election, they would need to gain the confidence of 61 MPs.
[edit] Retiring members
The following sitting members have indicated or may retire at or before the dissolution of the 48th Parliament[2]:
- Dover Samuels (Labour, list)
- Paul Swain (Labour, Rimutaka)
- Georgina Beyer (Labour, list)
- Dianne Yates (Labour, list)
- Marian Hobbs (Labour, Wellington Central)
- Ann Hartley (Labour, Northcote)
- Taito Phillip Field (Labour, Mangere)
[edit] Background
The election will occur in the aftermath of the 2005 New Zealand election funding controversy.
[edit] Polling
[edit] Party vote
| Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Greens | ACT | United Future | Progressive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 election result | 17 September 2005 | 41.1% | 39.1% | 5% | 2.1% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Herald DigiPoll[3] | 30 August 2006 | 38.7% | 46.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Herald DigiPoll[4] | 22-24 September 2006 | 38% | 45.7% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Roy Morgan Research[5] | 21 October 2006 | 40% | 40% | 5% | 1.5% | 8.5% | 2% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| TVNZ Colmar Bruton Poll[6] | 23 October 2006 | 36% | 49% | 3% | - | 6% | - | - | - |
| TV3 TNS Poll[7] | 4 November 2006 | 42% | 40% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | - |
[edit] Preferred Prime Minister
| Poll | Date | Helen Clark | Don Brash | John Key | Winston Peters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TV3 / TNS [8] | 3 April 2006 | 38% | 15% | N/A | 6% |
| Herald DigiPoll[9] | 30 August 2006 | 52.4% | 22.4% | 8.5% | 5% |
| Herald DigiPoll[10] | 22-24 September 2006 | 50.8% | 25.9% | 9.2% | 4.8% |
| TVNZ Colmar Brunton Poll[11] | 23 October 2006 | 33% | 17% | 11% | 4% |
| TV3 TNS Poll[12] | 4 November 2006 | 35% | 15% | - | - |
[edit] References
- ^ New Zealand Electoral Commission: Post-election deadlines - Election '05 Source
- ^ New Zealand Herald, 31 October 2006, by Audrey Young
- ^ The New Zealand Herald, 31 August 2006 Source
- ^ The New Zealand Herald, 26 September 2006 Source
- ^ Roy Morgan Research, 21 October 2006 Source
- ^ NB: All unknowns are less than two percent. Source: Television New Zealand, 23 October 2006 Source
- ^ TV3, 4 November 2006, Report
- ^ The New Zealand Herald, 3 April 2006 Source
- ^ The New Zealand Herald, 31 August 2006 Source
- ^ The New Zealand Herald, 26 September 2006 Source
- ^ Source: Television New Zealand, 23 October 2006
- ^ TV3, 4 November 2006, Report
