Queensland legislative election, 2006

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2006 Queensland state election major party leaders
Labor		Nationals

Peter Beattie Premier of Queensland		Lawrence Springborg Opposition Leader
Parliament	17 years	Parliament	17 years
Leader since	1996	Leader since	2003
District	Brisbane Central	District	Southern Downs

An election was held in the Australian state of Queensland on 9 September 2006 to elect the 89 members of the state's Legislative Assembly, after being announced by Premier Peter Beattie on 15 August 2006.

The election saw the incumbent Labor government led by Premier Peter Beattie defeat the National-Liberal Coalition lead by Lawrence Springborg and Bruce Flegg respectively, and gain a fourth consecutive term in office. Beattie thus became the first Labor Premier of Queensland to win four consecutive elections since William Forgan Smith did so in the 1930s. If Beattie serves out his fourth term, he will become the second-longest serving Queensland Premier, after Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen. Springborg has since resigned as Opposition Leader, being replaced by Jeff Seeney.

[edit] Overall result

Party	Seats	Legislative Assembly
Australian Labor Party	59
National Party of Australia	17
Liberal Party of Australia	8
Independents	4
One Nation Party	1

[edit] Post-election Pendulum

Following the distribution of preferences in the election, a Mackerras Pendulum can be drawn for the two main parties as follows:

LABOR SEATS (59)

Marginal
Cleveland	Phil Weightman	ALP	0.5%
Chatsworth	Chris Bombolas	ALP	0.8%
Hervey Bay	Andrew McNamara	ALP	1.8%
Indooroopilly	Ronan Lee	ALP	2.4%
Mudgeeraba	Dianne Reilly	ALP	2.9%
Gaven	Phil Gray	ALP	3.1%
Whitsunday	Jan Jarratt	ALP	4.4%
Aspley	Bonny Barry	ALP	4.6%
Fairly safe
Barron River	Steve Wettenhall	ALP	5.1%
Springwood	Barbara Stone	ALP	5.2%
Broadwater	Peta-Kaye Croft	ALP	5.2%
Pumicestone	Carryn Sullivan	ALP	5.4%
Redcliffe	Lillian van Litsenburg	ALP	5.5%
Redlands	John English	ALP	6.9%
Keppel	Paul Hoolhan	ALP	7.2%
Glass House	Carolyn Male	ALP	7.7%
Mansfield	Phil Reeves	ALP	7.7%
Cairns	Desley Boyle	ALP	8.1%
Ashgrove	Kate Jones	ALP	8.1%
Burleigh	Christine Smith	ALP	8.3%
Townsville	Mike Reynolds	ALP	9.1%
Southport	Peter Lawlor	ALP	9.1%
Mulgrave	Warren Pitt	ALP	9.9%
Safe
Greenslopes	Gary Fenlon	ALP	10.1%
Everton	Rod Welford	ALP	10.2%
Mount Ommaney	Julie Attwood	ALP	10.2%
Kallangur	Ken Hayward	ALP	10.3%
Toowoomba North	Kerry Shine	ALP	10.4%
Mount Coot-tha	Andrew Fraser	ALP	10.5%
Mundingburra	Lindy Nelson-Carr	ALP	10.5%
Murrumba	Dean Wells	ALP	11.6%
Ferny Grove	Geoff Wilson	ALP	12.1%
Mount Isa	Betty Kiernan	ALP	12.3%
Kurwongbah	Linda Lavarch	ALP	12.4%
Mount Gravatt	Judy Spence	ALP	12.9%
Ipswich West	Wayne Wendt	ALP	13.1%
Yeerongpilly	Simon Finn	ALP	13.8%
Stretton	Stephen Robertson	ALP	14.2%
Brisbane Central	Peter Beattie	ALP	14.8%
Stafford	Stirling Hinchliffe	ALP	14.9%
Cook	Jason O'Brien	ALP	15.1%
Sandgate	Vicky Darling	ALP	15.2%
Waterford	Evan Moorhead	ALP	15.9%
Capalaba	Michael Choi	ALP	16.2%
Bulimba	Pat Purcell	ALP	16.2%
Fitzroy	Jim Pearce	ALP	16.4%
Lytton	Paul Lucas	ALP	16.9%
Albert	Margaret Keech	ALP	17.0%
Thuringowa	Craig Wallace	ALP	17.0%
Mackay	Tim Mulherin	ALP	17.6%
Algester	Karen Struthers	ALP	17.8%
Nudgee	Neil Roberts	ALP	18.3%
South Brisbane	Anna Bligh	ALP	18.4%
Very safe
Rockhampton	Robert Schwarten	ALP	20.5%
Ipswich	Rachel Nolan	ALP	21.6%
Logan	John Mickel	ALP	23.9%
Bundamba	Jo-Ann Miller	ALP	24.8%
Inala	Annastacia Palaszczuk	ALP	26.3%
Woodridge	Desley Scott	ALP	29.0%

NON-LABOR SEATS (30)

Marginal
Bundaberg	Jack Dempsey	NAT	1.0%
Clayfield	Tim Nicholls	LIB	1.7%
Lockyer	Ian Rickuss	NAT	1.7%
Currumbin	Jann Stuckey	LIB	2.2%
Burdekin	Rosemary Menkens	NAT	2.4%
Robina	Ray Stevens	LIB	2.5%
Hinchinbrook	Andrew Cripps	NAT	3.7%
Caloundra	Mark McArdle	LIB	4.5%
Beaudesert	Kev Lingard	NAT	4.5%
Fairly safe
Kawana	Steve Dickson	LIB	5.7%
Noosa	Glen Elmes	LIB	6.3%
Mirani	Ted Malone	NAT	6.5%
Burnett	Rob Messenger	NAT	7.6%
Moggill	Bruce Flegg	LIB	8.0%
Toowoomba South	Mike Horan	NAT	9.8%
Safe
Maroochydore	Fiona Simpson	NAT	10.7%
Charters Towers	Shane Knuth	NAT	11.1%
Surfers Paradise	John-Paul Langbroek	LIB	12.0%
Cunningham	Stuart Copeland	NAT	16.4%
Gympie	David Gibson	NAT	18.2%
Darling Downs	Ray Hopper	NAT	19.1%
Very safe
Southern Downs	Lawrence Springborg	NAT	20.3%
Callide	Jeff Seeney	NAT	22.3%
Warrego	Howard Hobbs	NAT	23.3%
One Nation
Tablelands	Rosa Lee Long	ONP	19.8%
Independents
Gladstone	Liz Cunningham	IND	2.0%
Nanango	Dorothy Pratt	IND	4.2%
Nicklin	Peter Wellington	IND	25.1%
Maryborough	Chris Foley	IND	32.7%

Figures obtained from ECQ Website.

[edit] State of the parties before the election

Since April 2006, the ALP held 60 of the 89 seats in the Legislative Assembly, the Coalition 23 seats (16 National and seven Liberal), along with five Independents and one member of the One Nation Party. Thus in order to win an outright majority (45 seats), the Coalition would have needed to win an additional 22 seats from the ALP, the Independents or One Nation, assuming that they retained all of their own seats. This would have required a uniform swing against Labor of approximately 8% (such swings are very rare).

Sitting Labor member for Noosa, Cate Molloy, had resigned from the Labor Party following her disendorsement as a Labor candidate, which in turn followed her repudiation of the state government's plans to build a dam on the Mary River at Traveston. Molloy recontested the seat as an Independent.

[edit] Members who did not recontest their seats

A number of members of parliament retired at this election:

Tom Barton: Waterford, ALP
Darryl Briskey: Cleveland, ALP
Dr Lesley Clark: Barron River, ALP
Nita Cunningham: Bundaberg, ALP
Jim Fouras: Ashgrove, ALP
Don Livingstone: Ipswich West, ALP
Tony McGrady: Mount Isa, ALP
Gordon Nuttall: Sandgate, ALP
Henry Palaszcuk: Inala, ALP
Bob Quinn: Robina, Liberal
Terry Sullivan: Stafford, ALP
Marc Rowell: Hinchinbrook, Nationals

[edit] Opinion Polls

[edit] Leader Ratings

	Preferred premier ratings
		Labor		Lib/Nat
2004 election	61%		24%
25-28 Aug 2006	58%		25%
Jul - Aug 2006	53%		25%
Apr - Jun 2006	52%		22%
Jan - Mar 2006	51%		25%
Oct - Dec 2005	51%		25%
Aug - Sep 2005	54%		22%
Jul - Aug 2005	59%		22%
Source: Newspoll

[edit] Voting Intention

The tables below list voting intentions for the 2006 election. Conducted by Roy Morgan Research and Newspoll/The Australian, the surveys asked approximately 1000 voters each month: "If a State election were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?" The table also includes the two-party preferred vote.

	Two-Party Preferred
		Labor		Lib/Nat
2004 election result	55.5%		44.5%
25-28 Aug 2006	58%		42%
Jul - Aug 2006	54%		46%
Apr - Jun 2006	52%		48%
Jan - Mar 2006	50%		50%
Oct - Dec 2005	50%		50%
Aug - Sep 2005	50%		50%
Jul - Aug 2005	50%		50%
Source: Newspoll

	Two-Party Preferred
		Labor		Lib/Nat
2004 election result	55.5%		44.5%
6-7 Sep 2006	53%		47%
Jul - Aug 2006	58.5%		41.5%
May - Jun 2006	60%		40%
Mar - Apr 2006	59.5%		40.5%
Jan - Feb 2006	58%		42%
Nov - Dec 2005	59%		41%
Sep - Oct 2005	56.5%		43.5%
Jul - Aug 2005	61.5%		38.5%
Source: Roy Morgan

[edit] Candidates

Main article: Candidates of the Queensland legislative election, 2006

[edit] Pre-Electoral issues

As Queensland is currently suffering a major drought, water management issues have become a major concern. The Coalition has contended that the Beattie government's water management strategies are inadequate. The government has in turn criticised the Coalition for its policies on water. Proposals to alleviate the water burden, such as the construction of a "mega-dam" at Traveston and the introduction of recycled water into the water supply of Toowoomba, have led to debate and in some cases embarassment for the government.

From mid-2005, after the revelation of the Jayant Patel scandal, the issue of health has become a focus of controversy, damaging to the Beattie government. After several inquiries and industrial disputes, a restructure of Queensland Health took place, and the state government is currently lobbying the federal goverment for more doctor training places in universities for Queensland.

Other issues of importance to the electorate include environmental management and land clearing, asbestos in state schools, the provision of transportation and infrastructure to rural and regional areas, and the management of South East Queensland's population growth.

[edit] Campaign

The campaign started unusually with Premier Peter Beattie denying a general election was about to be called, while residents in some Gold Coast electorates received direct mail from the ALP stating that the election had been called for September.

At a press conference on 16 August, Liberal leader Bruce Flegg stated that in the event that the Coalition won government, and the Liberal Party won more seats than the Nationals, Lawrence Springborg would still become Premier [1]. Other Liberal Party MP's such as Michael Caltabiano disagreed, as this ran contrary to the coalition agreement signed between the two parties, which stated that whichever party won the most seats would form government. The ALP used this to attack Coalition stability in media and advertising.

Flegg was subsequently asked to leave a shopping centre in the Redcliffe suburb of Kippa-Ring for failing to obtain permission to do a campaign walkthrough. [2]. Flegg later denied that he had in fact been evicted.

On 22 August, Flegg took part in a media conference with Julie Bishop, federal Liberal Party Minister for Education, where he endorsed a Federal Government plan for the mandatory teaching of Australian history in schools. Responding to questions from journalists, he failed to identify the date of arrival of the Second Fleet (1790), or the person after whom Brisbane was named (noted astronomer and Governor of New South Wales Sir Thomas Brisbane) [3].

Two sad twists of fate impacted the 26-day campaign - on 30 August, opposition leader Lawrence Springborg took temporary leave from the campaign after the sudden death of his father-in-law, and National Party deputy leader Jeff Seeney and Liberal leader Bruce Flegg continued the campaign in his absence.[4] The death of TV personality Steve Irwin ("The Crocodile Hunter") on 4 September in an accident off Port Douglas, Queensland, took the media's focus away from the election in its final week. [5]

Current Treasurer Anna Bligh has stated the coalition's major election promises of wiping out stamp duty within five years, increasing the first home buyers grant by $3,000 and introducing a 10% per litre subsidy on ethanol-blended petrol will cost $2.4 billion dollars and has blown the budget. Lawrence Springborg says all his election promises are costed and affordable, with costings to be released two days before the election.[6] So far these costings have not been released.

On Friday September 8, the day before the election, Premier Beattie and Opposition Leader Springborg participated in a "great debate". [7] at the Brisbane Convention & Exhibition Centre, moderated by ABC journalist Chris O'Brien.

Although Newspoll and other published polls showed Labor well ahead on predicted two-party-preferred vote, Labor strategists feared that people would vote for the Coalition in a protest vote, expecting Beattie not to lose. [8] They adopted a strategy of denying Labor was in fact ahead. [9] The Roy Morgan poll suggested the Liberal vote had fallen, while the Greens had risen to 8%.[10]

[edit] Results summary

Legislative Assembly
Registered Voters		2,484,479
Votes Cast		2,246,983		Turnout	90.44%
Informal Votes		46,790		Informal %	2.08%
Party		Primary Votes	%	Swing	Seats	Approx. % Seats	Change
	Australian Labor Party	1,032,404	46.92	-0.09	59	66.3	-1
	Liberal Party of Australia	442,387	20.11	+1.61	8	9.0	+1
	The Nationals	391,876	17.81	+0.85	17	19.1	+1
	Australian Greens	175,744	7.99	+1.23	0	0.0	none
	Family First Party	41,653	1.89	+1.89	0	0.0	none
	One Nation Party	13,207	0.60	-4.28	1	1.1	none
	Other	102,922	4.68	-1.15	4	4.5	-1
Total		2,200,193			89	100.0

Figures obtained from ECQ Website

[edit] Seats changing hands

The Labor government regained three seats that it had lost in by-elections during 2005 and 2006, taking Chatsworth and Redcliffe from the Liberals and Gaven from the Nationals. The Liberals gained Clayfield, Kawana and Noosa from Labor, while the Nationals gained Bundaberg from Labor and Gympie from Independent Elisa Roberts.

The Coalition parties and the Australian Greens saw their primary vote rise following the demise of the Australian Democrats and One Nation, while Labor suffered a very slight swing against it.

[edit] Seats won by the ALP

Albert (retain)
Algester (retain)
Ashgrove (retain)
Aspley (retain)
Barron River (retain)
Brisbane Central (retain)
Broadwater (retain)
Bulimba (retain)
Bundamba (retain)
Burleigh (retain)
Cairns (retain)
Capalaba (retain)
Chatsworth (gain from Libs)
Cleveland (retain)
Cook (retain)
Everton (retain)
Ferny Grove (retain)
Fitzroy (retain)
Gaven (gain from Nats)
Glass House (retain)
Greenslopes (retain)
Hervey Bay (retain)
Inala (retain)
Indooroopilly (retain)
Ipswich (retain)
Ipswich West (retain)
Kallangur (retain)
Keppel (retain)
Kurwongbah (retain)
Logan (retain)
Lytton (retain)
Mackay (retain)
Mansfield (retain)
Mount Coot-tha (retain)
Mount Gravatt (retain)
Mount Isa (retain)
Mount Omaney (retain)
Mudgeeraba (retain)
Mulgrave (retain)
Mundingburra (retain)
Murrumba (retain)
Nudgee (retain)
Pumicestone (retain)
Redcliffe (gain from Libs)
Redlands (retain)
Rockhampton (retain)
Sandgate (retain)
South Brisbane (retain)
Southport (retain)
Springwood (retain)
Stafford (retain)
Stretton (retain)
Thuringowa (retain)
Toowoomba North (retain)
Townsville (retain)
Waterford (retain)
Whitsunday (retain)
Woodridge (retain)
Yeerongpilly (retain)

[edit] Seats won by the Nationals

Beaudesert (retain)
Bundaberg (gain from ALP)
Burdekin (retain)
Burnett (retain)
Callide (retain)
Charters Towers (retain)
Cunningham (retain)
Darling Downs (retain)
Gregory (retain)
Gympie (gain from Elisa Roberts)
Hinchinbrook (retain)
Lockyer (retain)
Maroochydore (retain)
Mirani (retain)
Southern Downs (retain)
Toowoomba South (retain)
Warrego (retain)

[edit] Seats won by the Liberal Party

Caloundra (retain)
Clayfield (gain from ALP)
Currumbin (retain)
Kawana (gain from ALP)
Moggill (retain)
Noosa (gain from ALP)
Robina (retain)
Surfers Paradise (retain)

[edit] Seats won by the One Nation Party

Tablelands (retain)

[edit] Seats won by Independents

Gladstone (retain)
Maryborough (retain)
Nanango (retain)
Nicklin (retain)

[edit] Queensland Greens call for proportional representation

Following the release of election results that saw the Labor Party gain 66.3% of the available seats with 46.9% of the vote, the Liberal Party get 9% of the seats with 20% of the vote, One Nation with one seat and less than 1% of the vote and the Greens unrepresented with nearly 8% of the vote, the Queensland Greens issued a press release on their website calling for Proportional Representation in Queensland [11]. The press release is part of an ongoing effort by the Australian and Queensland Greens to see Proportional Representation implemented on both state and national levels. The Greens have never won representation in Queensland's state parliament.